12-29-11

The buy signal that was triggered on the weekly profile was suggested to take in yesterdays blog and for traders to focus on this profile and stay on the buy side until it has a candle close lower then the low of the prior candle.  We were on the long side today and made positive gains as the market closed higher then it opened.  The Weekly Profile will continue to be the focal point for the overnight market and into tomorrows opening.  Again if the weekly continues to make new highs stay on the buy side of the market be careful taking shorts until we see the signal for a failure to the upside on this Profile.  Which will be signaled by a close lower then the low of the prior candle then start getting short and look for reversal towards the top of the PZ at 719.80.  Key support along the way TF will have to get below 737.50 the ZT Pivot on the Monthly Profile in order to continue lower. Next key support 733.40, 728.80, 725.70, 718.50.  Key Resistance 743.60, 747.10, 750.80, 756.50

Derivative Concepts Inc.'s Profile - TraderPlanet

Derivative Concepts Inc.'s Profile - TraderPlanet

12-28-11

TF signaled upside movement on the weekly profile at the close of the day the last candle of the day on the weekly profile made the close higher then the high of the prior candle and started the next wave up as predicted by the bullish breakout and confirmed uptrend from earlier in the week.  Expect some upside movement in the overnight market and possible more in the opening.  The monthly profile failed to make a bullish breakout and has now reverted back to the zonetrader pivot 737.50 and has thus become balanced on the month as was suggested yesterday to look for sells to that first target if the monthly failed to make a bullish breakout.
We now have to focus on the weekly profile as it is starting the next leg to the upside and currently generating a trigger for entry.  Stay on the buy side of the market until the weekly gets a candle close lower then the low of the prior candle.  This next wave up will have to take out the current high of this week and attempt to extend the trend key resistance are 742.70, 747.90, 756.50, and 760.10.  If TF finds resistance at any of these prices and then makes a candle body close below the low of the prior candle start looking for sells until this occurs stay on the buy side of the market.  Again we are in a position now on the Yearly, and Quarterly profiles that allows some fluctuation in both directions on an intraday basis so we may see a spike in volatility tomorrow.

122711

The ZoneTrader is currently telling us to focus on the monthly profile in order to determine current short-term direction.   It is currently attempting to make a bullish breakout and is currently trading near the top of the Persistence Zone, TF opened inside the PZ on the month giving us no control bias, currently the bulls and bears are fighting for control of the market on the month.  The close of the next 1 possibly 2 candles will be important as we have already touched MR1.  Now we need to see if TF fails to make a breakout which will be signaled by a close of a candle lower then the low of the prior candle.  If this occurs then we look for a retrace to the downside 1st target 737.40, 2nd target 725.70, 3rd target 718.40.  If TF continues to attempt to make a bullish breakout on the Monthly Profile by continuing higher towards the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 756.50 then look to play buy signals on the intraday and hold longs.  TF will also be breaking above the top of the PZ 747.10 telling us the bulls are attempting to take control of the market on the month.  Bulls are also attempting to take control of the market currently on the quarterly profile, and they are in control on the yearly and this profile is suggesting higher prices to 797.00.  The yearly has failed to establish a downtrend and is reversing to the zt pivot at 797.00.  However in the current position TF is in on the Yearly, and Quarterly Profiles there is sufficient room for a swing lower first before completing its retrace to the Yearly Pivot.  This swing will display itself on the Monthly Profile which is another reason we will be keying on it throughout the week.  

121811

The US$ is attempting to make a bullish breakout on both the yearly and quarterly profiles.  The bulls are in control of the market on the month and have confirmed an uptrend suggesting to buy the 1st retracement.  The weekly profile failed to confirm an uptrend and we expect a pullback to the ZT pivot 79.785 area we will look for support in that area for buy setups on the monthly profile.   http://youtu.be/-k2-mbtLIX4

The Emini Russell has opened tonight inside the persistence zone on the weekly profile, telling us there is no control bias and the bulls and bears will be fighting for control of the market on the week.  This should lead to a spike in volatility and some manipulation from large speculators as they will attempt to push prices as far as possible in the opposite direction of the current change at hand.  We will be keying off the Monthly Profile tomorrow looking to see if it fails to confirm a downtrend on the month or not keying off the close of the current candle in relationship to the high and low of the prior.

121411

The Monthly Profile has made a bearish breakout got the candle body close below the midpoint between MS1 and MS2 look to sell the 1st retracement on this profile.  If the signal generates below 724.80 which is the midpoint of the Monthly PZ the probability of success will increase on this signal.  Take note that the bottom of the Monthly PZ is at 702.50 on TFH12 which provided some support today as buyers will come in there and attempt to block the bears from taking control of the market on the month.  Until the Quarterly Profile analyzed with Daily candles makes new highs and then preferably closes higher then the high of the prior candle we will continue to take all the sell signals that are being generated on the weekly and monthly profiles until the un-closed gap is filled at 692.70.  There is also another unfilled gap at 660.30.  The 702.50 price level will be critical over the next few trading days if TF breaks below it and gets a candle body close below it on the Monthly Profile it should have no problem closing the first gap.  

12-13-11

The bears took control of the market on the weekly profile by holding the time filter below the bottom of the PZ on Monday.  This sets up a persistence zone strategy which suggest to sell the first retracement back to the bottom of the weekly PZ or higher.  The sell signal triggered at 736.60 once the market found resistance around the midpoint of the PZ and then TF made new lows on the weekly profile taking out the low of the prior candle.  This trigger was the start of the sell off today that closed the 7 point gap and then continued lower eventually hitting 710.20.  There is an unfilled gap below at 693.30 to 687.60 price area that the bears will attempt to try and close tomorrow.  The low of the prior day is 719.80 the close of the prior day is 729.80, look for resistance within this price range.  The monthly profile was able to break below the midpoint of the PZ at 724.80 and it also made a bearish breakout telling us to sell the 1st retracement.  Keep a close eye on the monthly profile tomorrow as it will be our high concentration profile for the day looking for the sell signal to generate once TF retraces on the monthly and then makes new lows taking out the low of the prior candle and look for a target at the gap fill price level.  If the sell trigger occurs below 724.80 the midpoint of the monthly PZ the probability of the market going lower will increase.  

12-1-11

TF HAD A CONSOLIDATED RANGE TODAY AFTER THE HUGE RUN TO THE UPSIDE YESTERDAY.  THE YEARLY PROFILE IS FAILING TO CONFIRM A DOWNTREND AND THE BULLS ARE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE YEAR.  THIS SUGGEST TO LOOK FOR BUYS ON ALL RETRACEMENTS AND LOOK FOR A MOVE TO THE 800.70 AREA.  SHORT-TERM THE PIVOT ON THE MONTHLY PROFILE IS 728.50 IF TF CANNOT GET BELOW THIS PRICE LEVEL LOOK FOR MOVE TO 750.80 AND POSSIBLY 764.60.  IF THE 728.50 MONTHLY PIVOT IS BROKEN AND TF FALLS BELOW THIS PRICE LEVEL LOOK MOVE TOWARDS 715.50.  THIS COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW AND THE 715.50 PRICE LEVEL IS A KEY AREA IF THAT HOLDS SUPPORT IT WILL BE THE START OF THE BIGGER MOVE TO THE 800.70 AS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE YEARLY PROFILE AT THIS TIME.  BULLS ARE IN CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE YEARLY, MONTHLY, AND WEEKLY.