Zone-Trader
10-27-12
ESZ12
GCZ12
HOF13

Hold all 3 long positions from prior days recommendations.
1. Long January Heating Oil positive and holding
2. Long December Gold positive and holding
3. Long December Emini SP

The ESZ12 is setting up for a possible failed bearish breakout on the Quarterly Profile which will cause an increase in prices back to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile at 1441 price area.
This market continues to bounce around inside the Quarterly Persistence Zone, bulls and bears still fighting for control of the ESZ12 on the Quarter.
Again Yearly Profile bulls are in control on the year and they have already established a bullish breakout.  This market will take one more leg to the upside at least.

January Heating Oil has failed to make a bearish breakout on the Quarterly Profile and is now reversing back to the Zone-Trader Pivot at the 3.10 price area.  That move will provide bulls with a nice chunk of change and the ability to reduce risk, and lock in profit while still holding the long for potential cold weather building up in the Northeast.

December Gold the bulls are in control of the market on the yearly Zone-Trader Profile and it is currently just slightly above the Zone-Trader Pivot and attempting to make a bullish breakout.  December Gold failed to make a bearish breakout a few months ago and the bulls maintained control of the this market.  If December Gold can make a bullish breakout on the yearly Zone-Trader profile it should continue higher towards 1900.

ESZ12 10-24-12

I recommended long positions  on the December Emini SP.  Also long gold, and Jan. Heating Oil.
The Emini is still bouncing inside the Zone-Trader Quarterly Profile Persistence Zone.  

In past post we discussed the Persistence Zone and the fact that the Emini had opened inside it on the Quarterly Profile.  It will continue to bounce off the top and bottom of the PZ until it can breakout and hold the time filter signaling to us traders who now has control of that market on the Quarter.  We started looking for the buy position around the bottom of the pz on the Quarterly.  ESZ12 has now bounced off it and is trading higher possible developing into a failed bearish breakout on the Quarter, which would send prices to 1441.25 as it reverts to the Zone-Trader Pivot, and possibly higher. 

Again the Yearly Profile made a bullish breakout and is suggesting a move to 1500 area.  Hold long positions, and don't pay any attention to the news listen to the zone-trader and the model will guide the way.

Emini SP December contract hit the top of the Persistence Zone on the Quarterly Profile and turned right off of it.  Again the ESZ12 opened inside the Quarterly PZ telling us the bulls and bears are fighting for control of the market on the Quarter.  The ESZ12 will continue to bounce inside the Quarterly PZ just as i told you in the last post i put out, until it is able to either break above the top and stay above it for 7 consecutive days, or break below the bottom and stay below it for 7 consecutive days.

The Yearly Profile did make a bullish breakout 5 weeks ago by closing on a weekly candle above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2, this tells us that the ESZ12 will take at least one more leg to the upside and attempt to continue the uptrend.

We were legging into this current pullback with the Bullish Breakout on the Yearly Profile.  Currently the ESZ12 is getting support around the 1/4 line within the Quarterly Profiles Persistence Zone, and is now pushing up towards the midpoint at 1431.25.  If ESZ12 can break above the midpoint, the bulls will take another shot at taking control of the market on the Quarter and attempt to push prices above the top of the Quarterly PZ at 1460.00.

Yearly Profile suggest the ESZ12 could reach the 1500 area and possibly to 1600 based upon prior market movement within the Zone-Trader Yearly Profile.

Currently Long and holding.  

ESZ12 10-05-12

The Emini Sp December contract is at a key price currently at the 1460 level.  This price level is the top of the persistence zone within in the new quarterly profile.  The ESZ12 opened inside the Zone-Trader Quarterly Profile Persistence Zone, providing us traders with a key piece of information, which is there is currently no control bias, the bulls and the bears are fighting for control of the market within the current quarter.  In order for the bulls to take control of the ESZ12 within this quarter they will have to push prices above the top of the Zone-Trader Quarterly PZ and keep there for 7 consecutive days.  Today the ESZ12 has stuck its nose above the 1460 price, but the question still remains, whether or not the bulls can keep it there.

Normal fluctuation within the Zone-Trader Profiles, tells us that if the underlying market opens inside the PZ on any of the five profiles, and the bulls and bears are fighting for control, if either one makes an attempt at taking control and fails, expect a reversal and test of the opposite side.  So in this case the bulls are currently attempting to take control of the ESZ12 if they fail to keep prices above the top of the Quarterly PZ 1460 for 7 consecutive days, and then we get a close lower then the low of the prior candle on the daily chart, we should look for prices to reverse to the bottom of the Quarterly PZ at 1403.75 and then see if the bears are capable of holding the time filter below the bottom of the Quarterly PZ for 7 consecutive days to take control.

It is possible they both fail and this market continues to bounce around inside the Quarterly PZ moving in a sideways range-bound market.  Only time will tell, but pay close attention to those 2 price levels. (1460.00, and 1403.75).

The Persistence Zone is always defined by the two orange colored lines, and it represents a zone from the prior Quarter's Zone-Trader Profile, where the market traded for the longest period of time.  This tells us where the fight was the greatest between the bulls and the bears.  Wherever the market spends the longest period of time tells us there is an even number of buyers and sellers.  Hence the Persistence Zone defines our control bias.  If above the PZ the bulls are in control, if below the PZ the bears are in control.  

EMINI S&P 500 8/14/12

[16:08] Matt R: buyin mkt
[20:58] Matt R: 1399.00 pivot on the weekly
[23:02] Matt R: target 1403.50
[23:02] Matt R: gonna take money and run at that price
[23:02] Matt R: then start looking for reversals to the downside
[23:03] Matt R: ES HIT THE TOP OF THE PZ ON THE QUARTERLY, BEARS ARE COMING IN AND SELLING TRYING TO BLOCK THE BULLS FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE QUARTER.
[23:04] Matt R: REMEMBER THE BULLS ARE IN CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE YEAR.  AND STILL ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A BULLISH BREAKOUT.
[23:04] Matt R: THE BEARS ALREADY FAILED TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE QUARTER.  TIME FILTER DID NOT HOLD BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE PZ
[23:06] Matt R: REMEMBER ON THE 1ST TOUCH OF THE TOP OF THE PZ WE EXPECT BEARS TO COME IN AND BLOCK THEY HAVE DONE EXACTLY THAT.
[23:08] Matt R: THE FIRST BLOCK SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST IN VOLUME THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT NEITHER THE BULLS OR THE BEARS CURRENTLY HAVE CONTROL OF THE MARKET ON THE QUARTER.
[23:10] Matt R: THIS FIRST MOVE DOWN SHOULD BE QUICK AND VIOLENT TO THE DOWNSIDE.  IF THE BULLS CAN WEATHER IT WHICH WE ALREADY KNOW THEY WILL BECAUSE THE MARKET ALREADY MAKE A BULLISH BREAKOUT ON THE QUARTER
[23:11] Matt R: THIS MARKET WILL EXPLODE UPSIDE IN THE 2ND PUSH IN ATTEMPT  TO BREAK THE TOP OF THE PZ ON THE QUARTER.  IF THE BULLS ARE SUCCESSFUL AND BREAK THE ES ABOVE THE TOP OF THE PZ AND HOLD THE TIME FILTER 7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
[23:12] Matt R: TOP OF THE PZ AGAIN IS 1407.75 REMEMBER THE ES WILL TAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT SO TRY TO GRAB SOME QUICK POINTS ON THIS OVERNIGHT UPSIDE MOVE
[23:18] Matt R: THE SIT AND WAIT FOR A SELL SIGNAL OFF THE ZT PHILOSOPHY ON THE WEEKLY PROFILE
[23:18] Matt R: THE SELL SIGNAL WILL EITHER BE RULE 2 OR PIVOT BOUNCE 2 THAT WILL GENERATE THE SELL
[23:22] Matt R: ALSO YOU WILL WANT TO UTILIZE YOUR OLD PERSISTENCE ZONES ON THE DAILY PROFILE ONCE IS WHITE AND THE OTHER IS RED  THE TIME FILTER MUST HOLD BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE PZ IN WHITE IN AT 1393.25 1ST IF DOES DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE STAY SHORT.  THEN IT HAS TO HOLD TIME FILTER BELOW BOTTOM OF THE PZ IN RED 1387.25
[23:22] Matt R: IF ES HOLD 7 CONSECUTIVE MINUE TIME FILTER STAY SHORT KEEP PLAYING TOWARDS THE ZT PIVOT ON THE MONTHLY PROFILE
[23:24] Matt R: AS ES APPROACHED THE PIVOT ON THE MONTHLY PROFILE AND YOU CAN ALSO SEE THE TOP OF THE PZ THERE START LOOKING FOR BUY SIGNALS ON THE WEEKLY PROIFLE  MOST LIKELY FAILED BEARISH TREND EXTENSION RULE 12
[23:25] Matt R: KEEP IN MIND THAT YOU CAN ALSO USE THE TIME FILTER BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE PZ ON THE WEEKLY IF HOLDS SELL WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS PIVOT ON THE MONTHLY.
[23:26] Matt R: ONCE LEGGED BACK IN LONG START LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT TOP OF PZ ON QUARTERLY IF BREAKS IT WILL EXPLODE UPSIDE.....
[23:26] Matt R: SEE YA IN THE A.M.
[23:26] Matt R: RMEMBER TARGET 1403.50 ON CURRENT

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5-21-12 SWING TRADES

The U.S. 30 year bond has resumed the strong uptrend it has been in roughly eight weeks ago.  The U.S. stock indices are currently is a retrace phase after failing to make a bullish breakout on the yearly profiles.  This failure generated sell signal and these markets have continued to sell off since this sell signal right into the close on Friday.  

The 30 year bond has extended the bullish uptrend on the Zone-Trader Yearly Profile, and it has also made a bullish breakout on the quarterly profile and currently poised to hold the time filter above the top of the persistence zone, which tells the bulls are taking control of the market on the quarter.  Look to buy the 1st retrace utilizing daily candles.  Buy USM12 at 143 27/32, place stop at 141 

Buy July Wheat at 640 with a stop at 600.  This market failed to make a bearish breakout on the Zone-Trader Quarterly Profile, while simultaneously failing to hold the time filter below the bottom of the Persistence Zone, which tells us that the bears failed to the take control of the market.  Now WN12 has made a bullish breakout on the Zone-Trader Quarterly Profile and is currently trading above the top of the PZ.  July Wheat has also failed to confirm a downtrend on the Zone-Trader Yearly Profile and is now reversing towards the Zone-Trader Pivot or the point of control, which strengthens the buy and suggest more upside movement possibly to 935 2/8.

Buy June U.S. Dollar DXM12 at 80.480 with a stop at 78.660.  This market is above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile and attempting to make a bullish breakout, which suggest to buy retrace moves on smaller time frames.  DXM12 has made a bullish breakout on the Quarterly Profile generating a buy signal on the 1st retrace, i am utilizing the price action on the Yearly Profile to find an entry point with support on the Quarterly Profile.  

Buy July Corn at 617 with a stop at 576.  This market has failed to make a bearish breakout on the Zone-Trader Yearly Profile and is now reversing to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 677 2/8.  July Corn is currently attempting to make a bullish breakout on the Quarterly Profile and the Zone-Trader Pivot will be a key support at 605 2/8.  

Market Commentary Emini S&P 500 video link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMoH0EQc3eU&feature=youtu.be

ESM12 4-18-12

The Emini S&P 500 has plotted a new Quarterly Profile within the Zone-Trader Model.  The Zone-Trader Pivot within the new profile will be a crucial price level to key in on over the next few trading days.  The price of the Zone-Trader Pivot is now 1383.50.  

Currently the Monthly Profile has failed to confirm a bearish downtrend and is attempting to revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Monthly Profile at 1393.00.  Look for buys in short, to medium term time frames.  

Remember the ESM12 has to get above 1383.50 the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile in order to continue up-trending and eventually reach our 1st target at 1393.00 the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Monthly Profile.  

If the ESM12 cannot get above the Quarterly Profile Zone-Trader Pivot at 1383.50 then look for reversals with a target at 1367.75 the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Weekly Profile.  

USDCHF 4-11-12

USDCHF has failed to confirm a downtrend on the Quarterly Profile suggesting a reversion move back to the Zone-Trader Pivot at .93542.  Since the buy signal was generated from the failure USDCHF has traded higher and is attempting to head to the Zone-Trader Pivot on this Profile as expected.

As this trade has developed and USDCHF has traded higher in price, this cross rate was able to break back above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at .91180 and last weeks candle closed above this key price level, which is also known as the point of control.

USDCHF is suggesting it will attempt to make a bullish breakout on the Yearly profile look for the Zone-Trader Pivot at .91180 to provide support then look for buy signals on medium term charts.  If the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile holds support at .91180 then USDCHF should be able to reach the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile, which the failed confirmation of a downtrend suggested again that price is .93542.

The new Persistence Zone for this Quarter has already plotted and it is being derived by last quarter's Neutral Zone MR1 to MS1, which means the current Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile at .93542 is also the midpoint of this Quarter's Persistence Zone.  This is super important as the Persistence Zone identifies where the fight is the greatest between the bulls and the bears and the midpoint of the PZ separates the zone between the bullish and bearish halves.

USDCHF will have to break above .93542 in order to continue an uptrend.  If USDCHF can break above this key price level then it could reach .95946, or .97838 price areas

Here is screenshot of Yearly and Quarterly Profiles side by side. Yearly is on the left, and Quarterly is on the right.  Good Luck

.  

Cotton 3-30-12

May Cotton is currently trading at 93.40 and hit 94.39 yesterday.  The Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile is at 95.95.  May Cotton has failed to extend the Bearish Downtrend.  No candle body close below the midpoint between MS3 and MS4 look for reversion to the Zone-Trader Pivot on this specific profile.

May Cotton can continue higher.  The key currently is whether or not it can get above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile at 95.95 and attempt to make a Bullish Breakout, which will take prices up to the 98.09 to 99.41 area initially.

Currently we are up $5.23 per contract on this trade and each $1 move is equivalent to $500 per contract.
If you are flat and are interested in entering this market, Key off the Yearly Profile and Quarterly Profiles look for buying opportunities around 91.01 if price retraces to this price area.

COTTON 3-27-12

May Cotton (CTK12) continues to trend higher as i expected and suggested.  CTK12 is currently trading at 92.55 up $4.38 or a gain of $2190.00 per contract as each $1 move in Cotton is $500 per contract.

The Yearly Profile on CTK12 failed to make a Bearish Breakout with the close on Friday of last week, which suggested for us to hold the current long position from 88.17.  With this failed Bearish Breakout on the Yearly Profile occurring, I now expect prices to revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile, which is currently 94.53.  I feel prices can go even higher then this price level but that is the current short-term target at this point in time.  Below is a screenshot of the Yearly Profile so you can assess for yourself, take note of the prices of the other Zone-Trader Levels above the ZT-Pivot which is white.  They will give price levels for further targets above the ZT-Pivot on the Yearly Profile.  Good Luck!

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COTTON 3-2-12

May Cotton continues to revert towards the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Monthly as i suggested was being derived from the Zone-Trader Philosophy.  May Cotton is currently trading at 90.25 up over $2 per contract from our proposed entry at 88.17 over $1000 per contract.

If May Cotton can stay in this price area and close today above 89.16 then the Yearly Profile will be making a failed bearish breakout, which suggest higher prices ahead and a revert to the Zone-Trader Pivot on that Profile which is at 94.53.  This could turn into a monster trade.

Cotton 3-22-12

May cotton trade is working nicely now as we still expect this market to revert to the zt pivot on the monthly at 91.02.  It is currently trading at 89.68 getting close to $2 above our entry.  Currently we are positive around $750 per contract as it continues to fluctuate.  

cotton 3-19-12

May cotton has failed to make a bearish breakout on the monthly profile generating a buy signal at 88.17.
This failure suggest that May cotton will now revert back to the Zone-Trader pivot on the Monthly at 91.02.
If May cotton reverts to the Zone-Trader Pivot as expected and closes on Friday of this week above the
entry of 88.17.  This would further signal a failed bearish breakout on the Yearly Profile, which the reversion to the Zone-Trader Pivot would push prices to the 94.53 price area.

If May Cotton can revert to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly and break above it the next target up would be MR1 on the Yearly which is currently 100.06.

Screenshot of the Monthly Profile is below again look to buy May Cotton at 89.17

USDCHF 3-18-12

The USDCHF cross found support at the my suggested prices on the Weekly Profile and then started the next leg up, which was the Bullish Trend Extension Wave.  USDCHF failed to extend the Bullish uptrend, which generated a sell signal as we then expect this market to revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot.

USDCHF did exactly as expected and reverted back to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Weekly Profile, and then traded lower down into the Bearish Breakout Zone between MS1 and MS2.  USDCHF currently has not yet established a Bearish Breakout on the Weekly Profile, no candle body close below the midpoint between MS1 and MS2 which the price is .91446.  However it has not failed yet to establish a Bearish Breakout either.

USDCHF is now at a key area as it is very close to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile .91180.  If USDCHF can stay above this price level and fails to make a bearish breakout look for buy signals on short -term to medium term time intervals.  If USDCHF makes a bearish breakout on the Weekly Profile and the price falls below the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile, look for sell signals on all time frames.

USDCHF 3-15-12

USDCHF has confirmed an uptrend on the weekly profile held the time filter above MR2.  USDCHF has also held the time filter above the top of the Persistence Zone the bulls are in control of the market on the week.  Look to buy the 1st retrace, look for support at .92307, and .92064.

USDCHF is currently above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile, the price of which is .91180 and currently attempting to make a bullish breakout on the year.  USDCHF opened inside the PZ on the Year so currently the bulls and bears are fighting for control of the market within this profile.  This midpoint of the Yearly PZ is the same price as the Yearly Profile Zone-Trader Pivot .91180.  

GOLD 3-14-12

The June contract in Gold (GCM12) failed to extend the bullish uptrend 11 trading days ago on the Quarterly Profile.  No candle body close above the midpoint between MR3 and MR4.  This generated a sell signal at 1770.00 as the Zone-Trader Philosophy suggest that GCM12 would revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1636.80.

GCM12 has now hit the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1636.80 and has initially found support.  GCM12 will have to break below the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile in order to continue down-trending.  The bulls are in control of the market on the Quarter as the time filter held above the top of the PZ on Feb. 6.  So we should expect buyers to come into the market and attempt to maintain control of the market, now that the price is back within the Persistence Zone defined by 2 orange lines.

The bottom of the PZ is at 1604.50, and will be a major support if price should reach it. Currently with reversion to the Zone-Trader Pivot after the failed bullish trend extension, GCM12 is now balanced and will have to attempt to make another breakout.  The Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly at 1636.80 is currently holding support, look for buy signals on medium term time frames 30 minute and 60 minute charts as long as they are generated above that 1636.80 price level.  If GCM12 falls below this price level i would stay on short side until it reaches 1604.50 to 1576.40 prce area.

3-14-12 EMINI SP

Hello everyone we have completed our move and the dedicated fiber optic line is finally installed, sorry for the delay.  I will resume with more active blogging of analysis and actually trade entries for several markets.  Thanks for your patience.

The Emini SP has made a bullish breakout on the yearly profile, and it is currently attempting to hold the time filter above the top of the persistence zone which will put the bulls in control of the market on the year.  Look to buy the 1st retrace on this profile which is analyzed by applying weekly candles.  Look for support around 1296.00 to 1267.00 area.

The ESM12 on the Yearly Profile has continued to trend higher into the old persistence zone identified by the red horizontal lines, which is from 2008 that is when the bears took control of the market and we all know what happened after that.  This price range is a key area for the ES is has hit the midpoint now at 1392.00 and the further it move into this zone the more resistance we should see come into the market.  The top of the 2008 PZ in red is at 1443.75 this will be a major resistance for the ES.  

The ZoneTrader Philosophy Persistence Zone Theory suggest that the bottom is in on the ES as the 2011 PZ was higher then the 2010 and now the 2012 PZ is higher then the 2011 which suggested more bullish movement throughout this year.  You can analyze this by looking at the shift in the 2 orange lines on the screenshot. You can see in 2011 the PZ was higher then 2010 confirming the bottom and suggesting to buy all pullbacks within that price range.  Then the ES sold off in 2011 only to get stopped dead in its tracks at the midpoint of the 2011 Persistence Zone.  The ES has been in a strong uptrend ever since.  

Silver 2-21-12

Silver failed to make a Bearish Breakout and reversed to the Zone-Trader Pivot as expected on the Yearly Profile.  Silver is now balanced on the Year and will attempt to make another breakout in one direction or the other.  Currently it is trading above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile and making new highs on a Weekly Candle, suggesting that Silver is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout on the year.

Silver has made a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile and the Bulls have pushed the price above the top of the Persistence Zone and they are currently attempting to take control of the market.  The time filter is 7 consecutive days above the top of the PZ in order for the bulls to take control.

The Weekly Profile has made a Bullish Breakout and the bulls have pushed prices above the top of the Persistence Zone and are taking control of the market.  Look to buy the first retrace around the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Weekly Profile at 33.745.

Screenshot of all 3 profiles below in order from left to right it goes Weekly Profile, Quarterly Profile, and then Yearly Profile on the right side.

ES 2-17-12

Last night i blogged that we had made a bullish breakout on the weekly and i was looking to buy the 1st retrace. I also mentioned that the bulls had maintained control of  the market on the week and to take buy signals on short to medium time frame.

In order for me to generate a buy signal for entry on the 1st retrace on the Weekly Profile.  I go to the profile 1 time frame lower and look for failures in the Zone-Trader Philosophy to the downside.  This failure to the downside generates the buy signal and to expect the reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot.

The profile 1 time frame lower is the inter-day profile.  Today the ES opened above the inter-day Persistence Zone which is defined by the 2 orange lines and derives our control bias.  Today the bulls are in control of the inter-day and the top of the pz = 1355.75 and the bottom of the pz = 1354.25.  The bulls will come in and start buying in this price range in order to maintain control of the market.

We then saw the ES failing to extend the trend did not make a candle body close below the midpoint between ms3 and ms4 signaling the buy and the entry for the reversal back up.  This failure occurred above the inter-day persistence, which strengthens the signal as your control bias and your directional bias are aligned and in line with the longer-term weekly profile Zone-Trader Philosophy.  Buy was triggered at 1355.75.

Picture of the inter-day profile is below

ES 2-16-12

Look to buy the 1st retrace to the downside on a 30 minute chart time frame.  This is a short to medium term trade.  Look for the buy to develop around but above 1347.50.  Last blog i don't think i was specific enough on directions for the trade.  The trade recommended came within 2 ticks of being filled then the ES sold off around 5 points, this occurred during the overnight and if you were not filled on that initial retrace move the trade would be canceled.  It is the same case for this trade we are looking to buy the 1st retrace, if you miss the entry cancel the buy, and do not chase the market.  There will be 1000's of trades down the road it is best to remain patient and make the market come to you.

During the daily trading session today we saw the same exact move that occurred on the 14th.  The bears failed to take control of the market on the Weekly Profile by not holding the time filter below the bottom of the Persistence Zone as defined be the 2 orange lines.  This tells us that the bulls were maintaining control of the market and to start taking all buy signals on 30 minute and lower chart time frames.  Picture of the
Weekly Profile is below.

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ES 2-15-12

look to sell the esh12 at 1339.75 downside target 1st = 1332.50, 2nd = 1326.00, 3rd = 1321.00

2-14-12 EMINI SP

The bulls are in control of the market on the week, as it opened above the Weekly Persistence zone.  The bears attempted to take control today as they pushed the market below the bottom of the Weekly PZ, but they were unable to hold the time filter and the bulls remained in control of the market on the week.

The information that came out of Greece rallied the market into the close and is most likely spurred the buying which blocked the bears from taking control of the market during the Week.

Look to buy retrace on short to medium term time frames bulls have taken control of the market on the quarter look for them to attempt to make a bullish breakout on the year.  Also look to buy retrace on long-term charts this will take awhile to develop since first the current uptrend still needs to be broken.

Picture of Weekly Profile

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EMINI S&P 2-12-12

This week should be volatile for the Emini S&P (ESH12).  On the Yearly Profile the ESH12 is encountering some key resistance areas, where we expect sellers to come into the market and attempt to reverse the current uptrend.

I expected the top to fall around 1347.00 to 1351.00 price area, i called 1347.00 a top as to provide you with a specific price.  The 1347.00 resistance is the bottom of an old Yearly Persistence Zone, which was not broken and which was the active PZ, when the Bear market began.  The top of the Old Yearly Pz is 1447.50, with the midpoint falling at 1397.75, and quarter lines at 1373.50, and 1424.25, these will all be key resistance levels.
If the ESH12 cannot trade completely through this old PZ and stay above it for 7 weeks, then the current Bear market is not over.  Which means i expect the Bears to start coming into the market with higher volume and attempt to block the current uptrend.

The 1351.00 price level is being generated by the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 on the Yearly Profile.  This is the price level that we analyze in order to determine if the underlying market is making a Bullish Breakout or failing to.  Again, Bears will attempt to defend this price level at 1351.00 and try to block the ESH12 from closing above it on a Weekly Candle.  Last week we saw sellers coming into the market and once the 1351.00 price level was hit, the ESH12 closed lower then it opened on Friday; however, it did not close lower then the low of the prior candle suggesting the trend was possibly reversing.

Expect continued selling pressure in this price range and an increase in volatility.  If the current Weekly Candle on the Yearly Profile closes lower then the low of the prior candle, this would suggest a failed Bullish Breakout and to expect a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1272.75 so look for shorts should this action occur.

Yearly Profile the Old Persistence Zone is drawn in Green.

GOLD 2-8-12

Yearly Profile Picture

GCG12 has not closed above 1755.40 the midpoint between MR3 to MR4 on the Yearly Profile, which is analyzed with a Weekly Candle.  GCG12 so far has not re-extended the Bullish Uptrend on the Year and now on the monthly profile is trading inside the Neutral Zone, below the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1737.30.  However, on the Quarterly Profile GCG12 is trading above the top of the Persistence Zone and the Bulls have taken control of the market and they are currently attempting to establish an uptrend.  Look for sideways pattern to develop in here on GCG12 with a range between 1755.40 and 1680.00.  Look for buys around the 168.00 area, i will watch the Monthly Profile for failures to the downside on the Month, which will generate a buy signal for me.  This will be the first retrace buy on the Quarterly since the time filter held above the top of the Persistence Zone, which is also a Zone-Trader Philosophy strategy.  I look for the entry one profile time frame lower so if i want to find a retrace buy on the Quarterly Profile, i go to the monthly profile and look for failures in the Zone-Trader Philosophy to the downside to signal the buy and pinpoint the entry.

Quarterly Profile Picture

THIS IS THE TOP 2-7-12

The Zone-Trader Philosophy is suggesting a top on the ESH12 at 1347.00, sell everything including the kitchen sink.  I am looking for a move of at least 100 to 120 points lower and a re-test of the bottom of the Persistence Zone on the Yearly Profile at 1224.25.  ESH12 will need to get below this price level in order to continue the sell off and remain in a Bear market.  If ESH12 cannot break below 1224.25 we will start looking for buys on the quarterly, monthly, and weekly profiles.

Keep you eye out for updates on this post.  I am currently short the ESH12 and will continue to leg into it as it approaches my top price at 1347.00.  

EMINI S&P 2-5-12

The Emini S&P (ESH12) has made a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile by establishing a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 which has a price of 1328.00.  This piece of information tells us that the ESH12 will take one more leg to the upside before this current uptrend will be over.  Whether or not if makes new highs is another question, but it will make one more leg so look to buy the first retrace on the Daily Candles chart.

Now keep in mind this is more of medium term strategy as it will take some time for ESH12 to retrace on Daily chart and the size of the retrace will be descent roughly around 40 points possibly to put things in to perspective.

So if you see ESH12 getting support above 1285.75, and then this market makes new highs on Daily chart, start looking for buys.  I will be sending out a follow up blog at the time, but i think it is important for traders to know ahead of time what to look for or expect.  So i try to pass the information to the traders that is being derived by the Zone-Trader Philosophy as soon as it occurs.

There is a major support at 1296.25 which is the Bottom of the Persistence Zone on the Monthly Profile. Currently the Bulls are in control of ESH12 on the Monthly Profile and buyers will start coming into the market when prices approach this price level because the Bulls will want to try to maintain control.

Here is screenshot of the Quarterly Profile displaying the Bullish Breakout.

 
Now the Bulls have put their footprint on the market with the Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile.  We should now see a reduction in buying volume and an increase in selling volume, since the Bulls have accomplished their challenge in order to maintain the current uptrend within this Quarter.

Look to play sell signals on short-to-medium term charts, 30 minute to 5 hour chart time frames.  Expect a push towards 1296.25 then start putting on the brakes and re-assess for support and possible reversal.

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Emini S&P 2-2-12

Currently, the ESH12 has hit the Top of the Persistence Zone on the Yearly Profile, which is 1321.00.  ESH12 is currently trading at 1321.50.  Keep in mind this is a major resistance and we should expect sellers to come into the market and attempt to block ESH12 from continuing the current uptrend as depicted by Weekly candles.

ESH12 is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout on the Yearly Profile.  In order to accomplish a Bullish Breakout, ESH12 will need to make a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 on the Yearly Profile, which the price is 1351.00.

If ESH12 current Weekly candle close lower then the low of the prior candle then the top of the PZ is holding resistance and look for a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1272.75 as a medium term move.

ESH12 is also hitting the top of the Persistence Zone on the Quarterly Profile, which the price is 1325.50.  Again, as with the the top of the PZ on the Yearly Profile, the top of the PZ on the Quarterly is expected to provide resistance and is a key price level that will have to be breached in order for the current uptrend to continue as depicted by Daily candles.  The Bears will attempt to block ESH12 from taking control of the market and from breaking out of the Quarterly Persistence Zone.

ESH12 is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile as well.  The midpoint between MR1 and MR2 is 1328.00.  ESH12 will have to make a candle body close above that price level on a Daily chart in order to make a Bullish Breakout and continue the current uptrend.

If ESH12 makes a candle body close below the low of the prior candle on the Daily chart then this would be a failed Bullish Breakout and according to Zone-Trader Philosophy, we will look for a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot or the Point of Control which is currently at 1285.75.

Look for spike in volatility as the fight between the Bulls and the Bears on the long-term Profiles will increase at this key inflection point or price area on the ESH12.  If the ESH12 fails to make a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly take all sell signals on medium and short-term time frames.  

1-31-12

As i suggested the first two days of this week trading has been extremely volatile.  The 797.00 Zone-Trader Yearly Pivot continues to hold resistance but with the market balanced on the year trading conditions should continue to trade in a volatile manner.  Look for V patterns and sideways price action until we get some clarity on direction as being derived from the Quarterly Profile.  TFH12 still has not made a
bullish breakout and it has not failed to make one either currently on the Quarterly Profile, which is adding to the volatility.

Might be a good time to look at some bull call spreads on the VIX.  I will update you as soon as possible on any signs of the volatility decreasing and directional clarity, but for now sideways pattern whipsaw i would expect.  Reduce volume and look for high probability setups.  Try to identify the range and look for sell signals near the top and buy signals near the bottom, and stay out of the middle as this is where the volatility will be the greatest.

Keep you eye out for more post covering the Euro, Gold, and Crude Oil.  

TF 1-29-12

TFH12 has hit the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at 797.00 just as we had suggested, now this market is balanced on the year and begin attempting to make another breakout.  Keep in mind this price level was plotted almost a year ago and clearly demonstrates the power of Zone-Trader Philosophy.

Now that we have hit the Yearly Pivot and are balanced on the year, we must focus on the Quarterly Profile in order to get a clear picture of which direction TFH12 will attempt to breakout next.  Currently TFH12 is attempting to make a bullish breakout on the Quarterly Profile.  It has not made a bullish breakout yet, nor has it failed, so the next few trading days will be key.

Keep in mind in order for TFH12 to make a bullish breakout according to Zone-Trader Philosophy it will have to make a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 which the price of this level is 800.60.  If TFH12 cannot make a bullish breakout it will revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Quarterly Profile at 758.60, which will be our first target to the downside.

Currently the Yearly Pivot at 797.00 has held very strong as a key long-term resistance and keep in mind I mentioned in the prior post that this level is also now the midpoint of the Persistence Zone for the 2012 trading year.  This makes this a strong level to breach, so if the Quarterly Profile fails to make bullish breakout i would look to load up heavy on the short side of the market.

I prefer to not form a bias and just let the Zone-Trader Philosophy guide us accordingly but currently the picture being painted is bearish.  But again it will be completely dependent on the Quarterly Profile.

Here is the screenshot.  

TF 1-25-12

Just returned from vacation and wanted to send out an update since i was not able to over the weekend.  TFH12 is still heading for the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at 797.00 as i suggested in prior post.  Again the Yearly Profile failed to confirm a downtrend by not holding the time filter below MS2 and it is now reverting back to the ZT Pivot.

We continue to buy all pullbacks and take all buy signals that are being generated upon the shorter time frame profiles (Monthly, Weekly, Intra-day).  Today TFH12 setup for a beautiful buy at the 781.40 area, which is the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Weekly Profile, if the market cannot trade below the Pivot we look for reversal back to the upside.  Since we were looking to buy pullbacks we expected this price level to hold support and looked to buy TFH12 as close as possible to 781.40.

Currently TFH12 is trading at 792.70 as i am writing this and it is moving in a very volatile manner at the present time.  However, it is continuing to drive higher and attempt to reach our target at 797.00.  Continue to buy all retrace moves to the downside until TFH12 reaches our target price level.

Once TFH12 hits the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at 797.00 we will shift our focus to the Quarterly Profile in order to analyze if the market can make a Bullish Breakout on this specific Profile.  The midpoint between MR1 and MR2 is 800.60.  We will need to see a Daily Candle close above this price level in order for this current uptrend to continue.

If TFH12 fails to make a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile this will suggest that the Yearly ZT Pivot is holding resistance and we will then look for sells and expect a move towards 754.60 initially.  Keep an eye out for updates on this specific analysis as i will attempt to send out blog as quickly as possible while trying to maintain my high level of accuracy.

Keep in mind that the bears are in control of the market in 2012.  This years Persistence Zone is the Neutral Zone from 2011, meaning the top of the PZ is MR1 from 2011 and the bottom of the PZ is MS1 from 2011. Which also means that the midpoint of the Persistence Zone for 2012 is the Yearly Profile Zone-Trader Pivot of 2011, our target at 797.00.  The Bears will attempt to keep prices below this level if possible in order to maintain control of the market and keep TFH12 in the Bearish Half of the Persistence Zone.

In other words be aware of this major resistance price level and slow down take your time and be patient once TFH12 hits 797.00.  Remember sometimes not making a trade is a trade.

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TF 1-18-12

TFH12 hit the identified resistance zone on the Monthly Profile in the overnight market last and generated the short entry at 765.30 it then proceeded lower and bottomed at 760.80 stop was moved to lock in profit at 761.80.  TFH12 then found support inside the Persistence Zone of the inter-day profile which was 762.30 to 759.30 the bulls were in control of the market within this range. The bulls were able to maintain control on the inter-day profile and held support within the Persistence Zone and TFH12 started to reverse and hit our stop on the profitable short, which was good for 3.5 points.  The Emini Russell is $100 a point multiplied by 2 contracts is $700.

The same inter-day PZ provided support at the opening bell and pushed TFH12 back up towards the identified resistance range that was derived on the Monthly Profile.  Once TFH12 hit the resistance range our focus shifted to the Weekly Profile in order to identify a possible re-entry on the short.  The weekly Profile did not generate a sell signal within the Monthly Resistance range and continued higher trading through the top of the range and establishing a Bullish Breakout.  TFH12 also held the time filter above the top of the PZ on the Weekly Profile and the bulls took control of the market.

Again as i have mentioned before the Yearly Profile failed to confirm a downtrend and is now reverting to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 797.00.  I cannot stress this more, Long-term overpowers Short-term and this is another example of that, which was encountered today.  It is best to assess the direction as being depicted by the Long-term profile and then take the signals off the shorter time frame profiles that align with that direction. In this case we should be looking to play all buy signals derived from the Monthly, Weekly, and Inter-day Profiles.

Here is chart of the weekly Profile:

ALERT: Look to buy the 1st retrace on the Weekly Profile look for support at these prices, 771.00, 768.60,  and 766.70.  The signal for entry will generate on the next profile lower, which is the inter-day and it will most likely be derived from a failure to the downside within the Zone-Trader Philosophy.  


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gold GCG12 1-17-12

GCG12 has currently opened inside the persistence zone on both the Yearly, and Quarterly Profiles.  We have no control bias on either of these 2 profiles currently the bulls and the bears are fighting for control of the market.  Expect a spike in volatility until GCG12 is able to breakout of the Yearly and Quarterly PZ's.

The top of the PZ on the Yearly Profile is 1685.40 this will be a key resistance for GCG12 if it is going to be able to re-establish the uptrend that broke in November of 2011.  If GCG12 cannot break above the top of the PZ on the Yearly Profile and the bulls fail to take control of the market on the year, start taking sell signals and look for GCG12 to start reverting to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly at 1389.

Our focus right now is on the Quarterly Profile, which is currently attempting to make a bullish breakout.
GCG12 traded slightly above MR1 at 1662.90 today and ran into some selling pressure.  GCG12 will have to make a Bullish Breakout by making a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 at 1684.30 in order to continue up-trending.

GCG12 also opened inside the Persistence Zone on the Quarter and the bulls and bears are fighting for control of the market on this profile as well.  Again expect increase in volatility until one of them gains
control.

If GCG12 makes new lows taking out the low of the prior day on the daily candles prior to establishing a Bullish Breakout, take all sell signals and look for a move towards MS1 at 1593.80.  The current move withing the Zone-Trader Philosophy that is occurring right now on the Quarterly Profile is critical to the future direction of this market.

Again GCG12 is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout.  If GCG12 can establish a Bullish Breakout then the Bulls will have a great chance of taking control of the market on the year and re-establishing the uptrend that was broken in November 2011.  If GCG12 fails to make a Bullish Breakout on the Quarter then the Bears will have a good chance of taking control of the market on both the Quarterly and Yearly Profiles and GCG12 should continue the current sell-off with prices attempting to reverse to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at 1389.00.

ALERT; We will keep a close watch on the Monthly and Weekly Profiles analyzing the Zone-Trader Philosophy upon them in attempt to get a jump on the entry and get positioned for the future move that will be derived from the Quarterly Profile.  The Monthly will tip us off on whether or not the Quarterly will be able to make a Bullish Breakout.  I will try to notify via blog as quickly as live trading permits.  You can take day-trades on GCG12 if that is your style of trade, but patience normally pays off in trading auction based markets and if you wait for the Quarterly to tell us whether to buy or to sell, you will have a much higher probability of winning and catching a much larger move.  

TF 1-17-12

Since my last post upon this market on the 12th the Emini Russell (TFH12) has continued to trade higher as i suggested it would and our retrace buy Bullish Breakout Signal on the Monthly Profile provided a nice winning upside move with the bottom starting at 755.20 and the top at 775.00 a 19.80 point move at $100 a point.

This specific upside leg is referred to as the Bullish Confirmation Wave on the Monthly Profile since TF had already made a bullish breakout and retraced it now has to confirm an uptrend by trading above MR2 775.30 and holding the time filter.

 The top of this Bullish Confirmation Wave again was 775.00 which is 3 ticks below the price of MR2.  TFH12 encountered selling pressure at this price level and started declining in price towards the open of the overnight market.  This selling pressure at the MR2 price level 775.30 suggested that TFH12 was possibly failing to confirm an uptrend, which generates a sell signal within the Zone-Trader Philosophy as we look for TFH12 to revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot or the Point of Control.

A candle body close that is lower then the low of the prior candle on the Monthly Profile would then confirm that TFH12 failed to establish an uptrend on the Month and that rule was achieved today during the day session.

ALERT: Look to sell upside retrace looking for key resistance at 765.30, 767.30, and 769.30 price areas.  Zone-Trader Philosophy suggests TFH12 downside target will be 747.60 to 745.80 (Monthly ZT-Pivot) price area.  

If and when TFH12 reaches the suggested target expect support at those prices and keep an eye out for possible reversals back to the upside.  TFH12 is still attempting to revert to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at 797.00 and the Quarterly Profile has made a Bullish Breakout suggesting that TFH12 will take at least one more leg to the upside.

The low of the prior week was 742.60, which is lower then the proposed target. If TFH12 stays above this price level, it will maintain the current uptrend and continue to revert towards the Zone-Trader Pivot on Yearly Profile 797.00.

TF 1-12-12

The Emini Russell March contract has now made a bullish breakout on the Monthly Profile we got the candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 at 767.20, this suggest that TF will take at least one more leg to the upside.  Look to buy retrace and continue to play the market towards the Zone-Trader Pivot on the yearly profile at 797.00.  

TFH12 1-11-12

The Emini Russell March contract (TFH12) has continued to trend higher as i suggested in my last post upon this market.  Again the Yearly Profile on the Zone-Trader Philosophy failed to confirm a downtrend and is now reversing to the Zone-Trader Pivot also called the Point of Control the midpoint of the Neutral Zone.  Our focus is now on the Monthly Profile that will dictate the current and short-term direction of the market as well as alert us to any possible reversals.  TF has broken above the top of the persistence zone on the monthly and held the time filter the bulls have taken control of the market on the month.  The top of the PZ on the monthly is 749.20.  TF is also attempting to make a bullish breakout trading at 764.70 very close to the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 which is 767.20.  We need to focus on the monthly to assess if TF will make a bullish breakout on the month and take another leg to the upside or if TF will fail to make a bullish breakout and reverse to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the monthly profile at 745.80.  We assess this by looking for a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 767.20 if this occurs look to buy retrace and expect TF to take another leg to the upside and continue towards the 797.00 target.  If we see a close lower then the low of the prior candle on the monthly profile prior to it making a bullish breakout then we assess this as being a failed bullish breakout and we will then begin selling and taking all sell signals on the intraday profile, and expect TF to revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot on the monthly at 745.80.  If this occurs expect support at the monthly pivot as the bulls are now in control of the market on the month.  

cotton 1-10-12

Cotton Futures March contract (CTH12) have failed to make a bearish breakout on the yearly profile did not make a candle body close below the midpoint between MS1 and MS2 look to buy retrace to the downside for position trade entry.  Long-term target 129.38 the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile.  Remember whenever the underlying instrument being analyzed fails to achieve a specific rule on the Zone-Trader model we then expect or look for that market to revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot also known as the point of control.  Attached is a screenshot of the Yearly Profile.

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TF 1-9-12

The Emini Russell (TFH12) opened inside the Persistence Zone on the Quarterly Profile this suggest that there is no control bias on the Quarter and the Bulls and Bears are fighting for control of TF.  This normally leads to v patterns and consolidated ranges around the midpoint of the pz as that is the where the fight is the greatest between the bulls and the bears.  Tonight's overnight market opened above the midpoint of the Quarterly PZ and has since traded higher simultaneously breaking above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Weekly Profile at 752.90.  Suggesting TF is attempting to make a bullish breakout on the week.  The Yearly Profile on TF had failed to confirm a downtrend by not holding the time filter below ms2 on the first week of December, suggesting to us to buy retrace moves to the downside and keep playing the market higher towards the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile at 797.00.  The current move on the overnight breaking above the midpoint of the PZ on the Quarterly Profile and into the bullish half of the zone suggest more upside movement.  Key resistance ahead 759.00, 763.70, 768.60, 772.40, 787.10

EURUSD 1-9-12

EURUSD opened below the Persistence Zone on the Quarterly Profile and has made a bearish breakout.  This suggest that EURUSD will take 1 more leg to the downside.  We look to sell the first retracement letting EURUSD move to the upside then we look for a close lower then the low of the prior candle to generate the short signal entry.  We want to pay close attention to the Yearly Profile while waiting for the position trade to setup off the Quarterly Profile.  The Yearly Profile is analyzed utilizing Weekly Candles, the Quarterly Profile is analyzed utilizing Daily Candles.  Make sure that the current weekly candle does not take out the high of the prior candle before the short signal position trade is triggered on the Quarterly Profile if it does take out the high of the prior candle on the weekly then hold off on the short and wait of the current weekly candle to close to assess whether it is closing above the high of the prior candle.  If it does this would signal a failed bearish breakout on the Yearly and we would then look to buy the retrace on the Quarterly Profile looking for it to fail to confirm a downtrend.  

EURO 1-4-12

EURUSD failed to make a bullish breakout in May of 2011 then reversed to the Zone-Trader Pivot as was expected.  Whenever a market fails in either direction it reverts back to the Point of Control or the Zone-Trader Pivot.  Then in the beginning of November 2011 EURUSD signaled that it would begin to make an attempt at a bearish breakout and continue selling off towards MS1 at 1.28733.  In the last trading week of the 2011 year EURUSD touched MS1 at the 1.28733 price level and initially found some support.  The first week 2012 the weekly candle tested the high of the prior week at 1.30826 and was not able to make new highs and has now begun to sell off back towards the the low of the prior week and the 1.28733 MS1 price level.  The next couple of weeks including this one are important for the future direction of the EURUSD. If EURUSD takes out the low of the prior week and breaks the key support of MS1 on the Yearly Profile continue to take shorts and look for this market to attempt to test the midpoint between MS1 and MS2 on the Yearly at 1.22350, EURUSD will need to get a candle body close below the midpoint on a weekly candle in order to make a bearish breakout and continue the downtrend.  If EURUSD is able to make a bearish breakout look to sell retracements as this suggest that EURUSD will take another leg to the downside.  Now that EURUSD has touched MS1 1.28733 if we see a close on the weekly candle higher then the high of the prior candle then this signals a failed bearish breakout and we then look for buys and for EURUSD to reverse back to the Zone-Trader Pivot or Point of Control at 1.39070.  This is the current analysis for the Yearly Profile which is the long-term perspective.  Don't make the mistake that most short-term and day-traders make and ignore the big picture.  Long-term overpowers short-term and it is crucial to understand where the market is in the big picture then look for short-term trades to align with the direction being suggested by the short-term.  

Gold 1-3-12

Gold has become of highly active trading vehicle since the financial crisis and the current issues throughout the ECB Union.  The Zone-Trader Philosophy generated a sell signal at 1742.10 on the February 2012 Gold Futures contract, on the 18th of November 2011.  Since that sell triggered Gold has sold off into the end of the 2011 trading year, reaching a low of 1523.90.  GCG12 failed to hold the time filter which is 4 consecutive weeks above MR4 and that is what triggered our sell at 1742.10.  We then expected GCG12 to trade back towards MR2 where it established the uptrend.  The price of MR2 is 1507.90 which is just slightly below where GCG12 made its current low at 1524.90.  Going forward it is crucial that GCG12 stays above the MR2 level where the uptrend gets established within the Zone-Trader philosophy if it going to have any chance of making a resurgence back to the 1800 level.  If GCG12 falls below the MR2 price level at 1507.90 then we expect GCG12 to continue lower as it will then revert back to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1377.45.  The Zone-Trader Pivot is the midpoint of the Neutral Zone and is also referred to as being the Point of Control.  Now we currently have a blue candle plotting on the Yearly profile which is a strong bullish color candle within our paint bar study.  If GCG12 can take out the high of the prior week and make a retrace to the upside from the latest sell off the key level for traders to pay attention to will be the midpoint between MR3 and MR4.  The Zone from MR3 to MR4 is called the trend extension zone and we look for a candle body close above the midpoint to determine if the underlying instrument is extending the trend or not.  This tells us whether or not GCG12 will make another wave to the upside.  The price of the midpoint between MR3 and MR4 is 1682.95.  Now i am aware that GCG12 trades in .10 increments so don't let the .95 throw you off just pay attention to the close of the weekly candles and see if it closes above or below that price.  If GCG12 closes above 1682.95 it can continue higher back to the 1800 level.  If GCG12 cannot close above 1682.95 on a weekly chart then look for a continuation of the current sell off back to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1377.45.  This is the current picture being painted on the yearly profile hope this helps bring some clarity to the picture.