Silver 2-21-12

Silver failed to make a Bearish Breakout and reversed to the Zone-Trader Pivot as expected on the Yearly Profile.  Silver is now balanced on the Year and will attempt to make another breakout in one direction or the other.  Currently it is trading above the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Yearly Profile and making new highs on a Weekly Candle, suggesting that Silver is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout on the year.

Silver has made a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile and the Bulls have pushed the price above the top of the Persistence Zone and they are currently attempting to take control of the market.  The time filter is 7 consecutive days above the top of the PZ in order for the bulls to take control.

The Weekly Profile has made a Bullish Breakout and the bulls have pushed prices above the top of the Persistence Zone and are taking control of the market.  Look to buy the first retrace around the Zone-Trader Pivot on the Weekly Profile at 33.745.

Screenshot of all 3 profiles below in order from left to right it goes Weekly Profile, Quarterly Profile, and then Yearly Profile on the right side.

ES 2-17-12

Last night i blogged that we had made a bullish breakout on the weekly and i was looking to buy the 1st retrace. I also mentioned that the bulls had maintained control of  the market on the week and to take buy signals on short to medium time frame.

In order for me to generate a buy signal for entry on the 1st retrace on the Weekly Profile.  I go to the profile 1 time frame lower and look for failures in the Zone-Trader Philosophy to the downside.  This failure to the downside generates the buy signal and to expect the reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot.

The profile 1 time frame lower is the inter-day profile.  Today the ES opened above the inter-day Persistence Zone which is defined by the 2 orange lines and derives our control bias.  Today the bulls are in control of the inter-day and the top of the pz = 1355.75 and the bottom of the pz = 1354.25.  The bulls will come in and start buying in this price range in order to maintain control of the market.

We then saw the ES failing to extend the trend did not make a candle body close below the midpoint between ms3 and ms4 signaling the buy and the entry for the reversal back up.  This failure occurred above the inter-day persistence, which strengthens the signal as your control bias and your directional bias are aligned and in line with the longer-term weekly profile Zone-Trader Philosophy.  Buy was triggered at 1355.75.

Picture of the inter-day profile is below

ES 2-16-12

Look to buy the 1st retrace to the downside on a 30 minute chart time frame.  This is a short to medium term trade.  Look for the buy to develop around but above 1347.50.  Last blog i don't think i was specific enough on directions for the trade.  The trade recommended came within 2 ticks of being filled then the ES sold off around 5 points, this occurred during the overnight and if you were not filled on that initial retrace move the trade would be canceled.  It is the same case for this trade we are looking to buy the 1st retrace, if you miss the entry cancel the buy, and do not chase the market.  There will be 1000's of trades down the road it is best to remain patient and make the market come to you.

During the daily trading session today we saw the same exact move that occurred on the 14th.  The bears failed to take control of the market on the Weekly Profile by not holding the time filter below the bottom of the Persistence Zone as defined be the 2 orange lines.  This tells us that the bulls were maintaining control of the market and to start taking all buy signals on 30 minute and lower chart time frames.  Picture of the
Weekly Profile is below.

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ES 2-15-12

look to sell the esh12 at 1339.75 downside target 1st = 1332.50, 2nd = 1326.00, 3rd = 1321.00

2-14-12 EMINI SP

The bulls are in control of the market on the week, as it opened above the Weekly Persistence zone.  The bears attempted to take control today as they pushed the market below the bottom of the Weekly PZ, but they were unable to hold the time filter and the bulls remained in control of the market on the week.

The information that came out of Greece rallied the market into the close and is most likely spurred the buying which blocked the bears from taking control of the market during the Week.

Look to buy retrace on short to medium term time frames bulls have taken control of the market on the quarter look for them to attempt to make a bullish breakout on the year.  Also look to buy retrace on long-term charts this will take awhile to develop since first the current uptrend still needs to be broken.

Picture of Weekly Profile

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EMINI S&P 2-12-12

This week should be volatile for the Emini S&P (ESH12).  On the Yearly Profile the ESH12 is encountering some key resistance areas, where we expect sellers to come into the market and attempt to reverse the current uptrend.

I expected the top to fall around 1347.00 to 1351.00 price area, i called 1347.00 a top as to provide you with a specific price.  The 1347.00 resistance is the bottom of an old Yearly Persistence Zone, which was not broken and which was the active PZ, when the Bear market began.  The top of the Old Yearly Pz is 1447.50, with the midpoint falling at 1397.75, and quarter lines at 1373.50, and 1424.25, these will all be key resistance levels.
If the ESH12 cannot trade completely through this old PZ and stay above it for 7 weeks, then the current Bear market is not over.  Which means i expect the Bears to start coming into the market with higher volume and attempt to block the current uptrend.

The 1351.00 price level is being generated by the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 on the Yearly Profile.  This is the price level that we analyze in order to determine if the underlying market is making a Bullish Breakout or failing to.  Again, Bears will attempt to defend this price level at 1351.00 and try to block the ESH12 from closing above it on a Weekly Candle.  Last week we saw sellers coming into the market and once the 1351.00 price level was hit, the ESH12 closed lower then it opened on Friday; however, it did not close lower then the low of the prior candle suggesting the trend was possibly reversing.

Expect continued selling pressure in this price range and an increase in volatility.  If the current Weekly Candle on the Yearly Profile closes lower then the low of the prior candle, this would suggest a failed Bullish Breakout and to expect a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1272.75 so look for shorts should this action occur.

Yearly Profile the Old Persistence Zone is drawn in Green.

GOLD 2-8-12

Yearly Profile Picture

GCG12 has not closed above 1755.40 the midpoint between MR3 to MR4 on the Yearly Profile, which is analyzed with a Weekly Candle.  GCG12 so far has not re-extended the Bullish Uptrend on the Year and now on the monthly profile is trading inside the Neutral Zone, below the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1737.30.  However, on the Quarterly Profile GCG12 is trading above the top of the Persistence Zone and the Bulls have taken control of the market and they are currently attempting to establish an uptrend.  Look for sideways pattern to develop in here on GCG12 with a range between 1755.40 and 1680.00.  Look for buys around the 168.00 area, i will watch the Monthly Profile for failures to the downside on the Month, which will generate a buy signal for me.  This will be the first retrace buy on the Quarterly since the time filter held above the top of the Persistence Zone, which is also a Zone-Trader Philosophy strategy.  I look for the entry one profile time frame lower so if i want to find a retrace buy on the Quarterly Profile, i go to the monthly profile and look for failures in the Zone-Trader Philosophy to the downside to signal the buy and pinpoint the entry.

Quarterly Profile Picture

THIS IS THE TOP 2-7-12

The Zone-Trader Philosophy is suggesting a top on the ESH12 at 1347.00, sell everything including the kitchen sink.  I am looking for a move of at least 100 to 120 points lower and a re-test of the bottom of the Persistence Zone on the Yearly Profile at 1224.25.  ESH12 will need to get below this price level in order to continue the sell off and remain in a Bear market.  If ESH12 cannot break below 1224.25 we will start looking for buys on the quarterly, monthly, and weekly profiles.

Keep you eye out for updates on this post.  I am currently short the ESH12 and will continue to leg into it as it approaches my top price at 1347.00.  

EMINI S&P 2-5-12

The Emini S&P (ESH12) has made a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile by establishing a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 which has a price of 1328.00.  This piece of information tells us that the ESH12 will take one more leg to the upside before this current uptrend will be over.  Whether or not if makes new highs is another question, but it will make one more leg so look to buy the first retrace on the Daily Candles chart.

Now keep in mind this is more of medium term strategy as it will take some time for ESH12 to retrace on Daily chart and the size of the retrace will be descent roughly around 40 points possibly to put things in to perspective.

So if you see ESH12 getting support above 1285.75, and then this market makes new highs on Daily chart, start looking for buys.  I will be sending out a follow up blog at the time, but i think it is important for traders to know ahead of time what to look for or expect.  So i try to pass the information to the traders that is being derived by the Zone-Trader Philosophy as soon as it occurs.

There is a major support at 1296.25 which is the Bottom of the Persistence Zone on the Monthly Profile. Currently the Bulls are in control of ESH12 on the Monthly Profile and buyers will start coming into the market when prices approach this price level because the Bulls will want to try to maintain control.

Here is screenshot of the Quarterly Profile displaying the Bullish Breakout.

 
Now the Bulls have put their footprint on the market with the Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile.  We should now see a reduction in buying volume and an increase in selling volume, since the Bulls have accomplished their challenge in order to maintain the current uptrend within this Quarter.

Look to play sell signals on short-to-medium term charts, 30 minute to 5 hour chart time frames.  Expect a push towards 1296.25 then start putting on the brakes and re-assess for support and possible reversal.

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Emini S&P 2-2-12

Currently, the ESH12 has hit the Top of the Persistence Zone on the Yearly Profile, which is 1321.00.  ESH12 is currently trading at 1321.50.  Keep in mind this is a major resistance and we should expect sellers to come into the market and attempt to block ESH12 from continuing the current uptrend as depicted by Weekly candles.

ESH12 is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout on the Yearly Profile.  In order to accomplish a Bullish Breakout, ESH12 will need to make a candle body close above the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 on the Yearly Profile, which the price is 1351.00.

If ESH12 current Weekly candle close lower then the low of the prior candle then the top of the PZ is holding resistance and look for a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1272.75 as a medium term move.

ESH12 is also hitting the top of the Persistence Zone on the Quarterly Profile, which the price is 1325.50.  Again, as with the the top of the PZ on the Yearly Profile, the top of the PZ on the Quarterly is expected to provide resistance and is a key price level that will have to be breached in order for the current uptrend to continue as depicted by Daily candles.  The Bears will attempt to block ESH12 from taking control of the market and from breaking out of the Quarterly Persistence Zone.

ESH12 is attempting to make a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly Profile as well.  The midpoint between MR1 and MR2 is 1328.00.  ESH12 will have to make a candle body close above that price level on a Daily chart in order to make a Bullish Breakout and continue the current uptrend.

If ESH12 makes a candle body close below the low of the prior candle on the Daily chart then this would be a failed Bullish Breakout and according to Zone-Trader Philosophy, we will look for a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot or the Point of Control which is currently at 1285.75.

Look for spike in volatility as the fight between the Bulls and the Bears on the long-term Profiles will increase at this key inflection point or price area on the ESH12.  If the ESH12 fails to make a Bullish Breakout on the Quarterly take all sell signals on medium and short-term time frames.