Sunday, February 12, 2012

EMINI S&P 2-12-12

This week should be volatile for the Emini S&P (ESH12).  On the Yearly Profile the ESH12 is encountering some key resistance areas, where we expect sellers to come into the market and attempt to reverse the current uptrend.

I expected the top to fall around 1347.00 to 1351.00 price area, i called 1347.00 a top as to provide you with a specific price.  The 1347.00 resistance is the bottom of an old Yearly Persistence Zone, which was not broken and which was the active PZ, when the Bear market began.  The top of the Old Yearly Pz is 1447.50, with the midpoint falling at 1397.75, and quarter lines at 1373.50, and 1424.25, these will all be key resistance levels.
If the ESH12 cannot trade completely through this old PZ and stay above it for 7 weeks, then the current Bear market is not over.  Which means i expect the Bears to start coming into the market with higher volume and attempt to block the current uptrend.

The 1351.00 price level is being generated by the midpoint between MR1 and MR2 on the Yearly Profile.  This is the price level that we analyze in order to determine if the underlying market is making a Bullish Breakout or failing to.  Again, Bears will attempt to defend this price level at 1351.00 and try to block the ESH12 from closing above it on a Weekly Candle.  Last week we saw sellers coming into the market and once the 1351.00 price level was hit, the ESH12 closed lower then it opened on Friday; however, it did not close lower then the low of the prior candle suggesting the trend was possibly reversing.

Expect continued selling pressure in this price range and an increase in volatility.  If the current Weekly Candle on the Yearly Profile closes lower then the low of the prior candle, this would suggest a failed Bullish Breakout and to expect a reversal to the Zone-Trader Pivot at 1272.75 so look for shorts should this action occur.

Yearly Profile the Old Persistence Zone is drawn in Green.

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