Friday, October 5, 2012

ESZ12 10-05-12

The Emini Sp December contract is at a key price currently at the 1460 level.  This price level is the top of the persistence zone within in the new quarterly profile.  The ESZ12 opened inside the Zone-Trader Quarterly Profile Persistence Zone, providing us traders with a key piece of information, which is there is currently no control bias, the bulls and the bears are fighting for control of the market within the current quarter.  In order for the bulls to take control of the ESZ12 within this quarter they will have to push prices above the top of the Zone-Trader Quarterly PZ and keep there for 7 consecutive days.  Today the ESZ12 has stuck its nose above the 1460 price, but the question still remains, whether or not the bulls can keep it there.

Normal fluctuation within the Zone-Trader Profiles, tells us that if the underlying market opens inside the PZ on any of the five profiles, and the bulls and bears are fighting for control, if either one makes an attempt at taking control and fails, expect a reversal and test of the opposite side.  So in this case the bulls are currently attempting to take control of the ESZ12 if they fail to keep prices above the top of the Quarterly PZ 1460 for 7 consecutive days, and then we get a close lower then the low of the prior candle on the daily chart, we should look for prices to reverse to the bottom of the Quarterly PZ at 1403.75 and then see if the bears are capable of holding the time filter below the bottom of the Quarterly PZ for 7 consecutive days to take control.

It is possible they both fail and this market continues to bounce around inside the Quarterly PZ moving in a sideways range-bound market.  Only time will tell, but pay close attention to those 2 price levels. (1460.00, and 1403.75).

The Persistence Zone is always defined by the two orange colored lines, and it represents a zone from the prior Quarter's Zone-Trader Profile, where the market traded for the longest period of time.  This tells us where the fight was the greatest between the bulls and the bears.  Wherever the market spends the longest period of time tells us there is an even number of buyers and sellers.  Hence the Persistence Zone defines our control bias.  If above the PZ the bulls are in control, if below the PZ the bears are in control.  

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